Last month, the Fed took a drastic step by cutting the rate twice by a total of 125 basis points. And down 225 basis points since last fall, what does this say about potential stock returns? Let’s look at the historical data.

Since 1950, the Federal Reserve has cut more than 200 basis points 11 times in an attempt to simulate a faltering economy. Economists believe it takes six months for the rate cuts to take effect, which should take up to three years. Therefore, I examined the one-year and three-year returns of the S&P 500 Index and the benchmark Fama/French Small Cap Value portfolio for each rate cut period.

After cuts of more than 200 basis points, the average one-year return for the S&P 500 was 13.5% with two periods of negative return. The three-year average return for the S&P 500 was 31.8% with one negative return period.

However, the benchmark Fama/French Small Cap Value portfolio fared better. The average one year return is 34.5% with no negative returns. The three-year average return was 100.5% with only one period of negative return.

Periods of rate cuts	S&P500	S/V*	S&P500	S/V*

of 200bp or more	1y ret	1y ret	3y ret	3y ret

Oct 1957 - Mar 1958 	32% 	64% 	55% 	106%

Apr 1960 - Jan 1961 	11% 	23% 	25% 	47%

Apr 1970 - Nov 1970 	8% 	12% 	10% 	-1%

Jul 1974 - Oct 1974 	21% 	34% 	25% 	149%

Apr 1980 - May 1980 	-19% 	46% 	46% 	175%

Jan 1981 - Feb 1981 	-14% 	10% 	20% 	131%

Jun 1981 - Sep 1981 	4% 	25% 	143% 	141%

Apr 1982 - Jul 1982 	52% 	96% 	78% 	174%

Aug 1984 - Nov 1984 	24% 	31% 	41% 	39%

Sep 1990 - Mar 1991 	8% 	29% 	19% 	89%

Sep 2000 - May 2001 	-15% 	19% 	-11% 	57%

Average 		13.5% 	35.4% 	31.8% 	100.5%

*S/V = Fama/French Small Cap Value benchmark Portfolio

Data sources: Federal Reserve, Kenneth French data library

It is evident from historical data that Fed rate cuts are no guarantee of making money in stocks. However, the odds of doing so increase, particularly with small-cap value stocks. (Note: The odds of losing money on the S&P 500 Index in any given year are about 30%.)

Martin Zweig once said:

Don’t fight the Federal Reserve!

How wise was his advice!