Is Union Pacific the IV slowly trickling into the two-builder market? When Union Pacific pulls the plug, will EMD stop working? Virtually all modern locomotives at BNSF’s Transcon are GE products; CSX etched “4500” on their SD70MACs to make room for the 700-series ES44ACs. Are they curtains?

I see a modern C628 in the SD70ACe; bulky, sturdy and a product that in itself works adequately well. However, its failure to generate ES44-sized profits portends that EMD R&D will create a C636 in its next attempt. Poetic justice.

I grew up with the SD40-2. It is impossible to believe that the crowds of hundreds are melting away; with them, perhaps their builder. I was too young to feel the pain of an alcoholic. I get it now.
Will the world allow a one-builder market? Will EMD be able to keep its costs low and its output high enough to satisfy especially Union Pacific and at least one or two other railroads: KCS, CN, NS? If EMD goes extinct, will locomotive building be lucrative enough against GE and GEVO to attract an upstart?

GE patiently waited for its chance. A Dash-7 was often seen among the SD40-2 bookends. EMD had the products; GE was ordered to keep the game fair.

AC traction stepped up GE. The railroads weren’t concerned with history; they wanted a reliable product as cheap and fast as possible. When R&D was resolved, GE won. We had the SD70MAC and the AC4400CW, with the AC4400CW being an almost 3:1 favourite.

EMD does not have the funds to stay in business; GE was able to overcome slow locomotive sales when it got an occasional bone. If there’s going to be a second builder, it’s going to have to be big and strong enough to live in the GE kennel for a while.